Gauge
Gauge shows how sure the model is, as a range and a word, never as a bare percentage. The band is as wide as the evidence allows. Take a source away and the band widens and the word changes.
The model estimates what Kestrel House would sell for, from three sources. Leave out the June valuation and the comparables and the band widens to “Unsure”. Add the September valuation and it narrows to “Very sure”.
Anatomy
When to use
- For any estimate people will act on: values, forecasts, likelihoods, completion dates.
- When the honest answer is a range, not a number.
- For the assumptions behind an estimate, add Premise.
Behaviour
| Band each side | Word | Says |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3% | Very sure | Likely between S$590M and S$625M |
| 3% to 6% | Fairly sure | Likely between S$580M and S$630M |
| 6% to 11% | Unsure | Likely between S$550M and S$680M |
| More | A rough guess | Anywhere from S$455M to S$745M |
The words are fixed, so “fairly sure” means the same thing on every screen. Numbers describe the range; words describe the confidence.
Best practices
- Give the range in the units people use, rounded to what the evidence supports.
- Use the four words, and only them.
- Show what the estimate rests on, and what would make it surer.
- Never show a percentage confidence. “73% confident” sounds measured and isn’t.
Accessibility
- The range is an image whose name is the full sentence: “Fairly sure. Likely between S$580M and S$630M.”
- Evidence toggles are buttons with a pressed state; a change announces the new estimate.
- The word carries the confidence; ochre only reinforces it.
Specifications
- Word
- Display, 750 weight
- Band
- Tyrian tint 22%, 1.5 pt tyrian outline
- Estimate
- 2.5 pt tyrian line
- Sources
- 4.5 pt dots with letters; hollow when left out